The Species Collapse Scenario |
It's all of the above, and more. It's increasingly clear that biodiversity is rapidly declining, worldwide. Species are going extinct before they can be catalogued, and those whose numbers were significant a decade ago have become rare.
If it was just the cute critters -- the koalas, the polar bears, the tigers, the mountain gorillas -- it would still be sad. But it's the species upon which other populations of species depend (which is nearly every species), the workhorse species, the fundamental species, that are also in decline. That's the scariest part, for the species homo sapiens.
Without wild and domestic bees, for example, a large proportion of food crops (apples, soybeans, almonds, peaches, cherries, strawberries, and more) would not bear fruit. Without a robust bird population, many beetle and locust populations might explode. Without amphibians like frogs, mosquito and other insect populations may swarm, imbalancing yet other ecosystem interrelationships. And, without critters we hardly pay attention to -- say, a particular kind of plankton -- then the tiny plankton-eaters, which feed the small fish, which feed the bigger fish, which feed the sharks, all crash. The web of life becomes tattered.
There is evidence that even the fairly slight effects of climate warming that we've been experiencing the last decade may be turning dependencies out of whack:
It is very difficult to disaggregate the Climate Change Scenario from the Species Collapse Scenario, as seen above, but unlike the Confluentialists at The Center for PostApocalypse Studies, we at the Institute strive to focus on one catastrophe at a time, to better understand and analyze them.
To that end, we are hypothesizing a decade in which a number of key species go into catastrophic decline, for reasons we will only dimly understand. In some areas it will be dramatic, in other areas less so.
from The Telegraph (UK), 01/09/08 One in three bird species faces extinction An increase of 1°C from present temperatures is likely to trigger roughly 100 bird extinctions. But if the global average temperature were to rise 5°C, from that point on an additional degree of warming, to 6°C, would probably cause 300 to 500 more bird extinctions. | |
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from Newsday (US), 01/03/08 Hundreds of crows killed by virus in NY Hundreds have died this winter from infection with a strain of avian reovirus that attacks their intestinal systems. The birds have been found in Albany, Dutchess, Jefferson, Montgomery, Orange and Steuben counties. The largest die-off was a group of 100 in Poughkeepsie. | |
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from Times-Picayune (New Orleans), 01/07/08 Study suggests big risks with fish farms "The study from Canadian researchers finds that parasites spread from farmed salmon along Canada's Pacific coast could lead to a species collapse for the area's wild salmon within four years. Previous studies have pointed to sea lice from fish farms as a threat to wild salmon populations, but this is the first to suggest effects on the entire species population." | |
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from ScienceDaily, 01/11/08 Humans Have Caused Profound Changes In Caribbean Coral Reefs "Coral reefs in the Caribbean have suffered significant changes due to the proximal effects of a growing human population, reports a new study. "It is well acknowledged that coral reefs are declining worldwide but the driving forces remain hotly debated," said author Camilo Mora at Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada...The study showed clearly that the number of people living in close proximity to coral reefs is the main driver of the mortality of corals, loss of fish biomass and increases in macroalgae abundance. "The continuing degradation of coral reefs may be soon beyond repair, if threats are not identified and rapidly controlled," Mora said." | |
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from Sacramento Bee (US), 01/11/08 Fish: Delta drop sparks fears of ecological shift "Five Delta fish species continue marching toward extinction, according to new data released Wednesday, a result that some observers warn may signify a major ecological shift in the West Coast's largest estuary.... record-low numbers for three species: longfin smelt, Sacramento splittail and American shad. Two others, Delta smelt and striped bass, posted near-record lows." | |
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from Washington Post, 01/12/08 The Sixth Extinction "More than a decade ago, many scientists claimed that humans were demonstrating a capacity to force a major global catastrophe that would lead to a traumatic shift in climate, an intolerable level of destruction of natural habitats, and an extinction event that could eliminate 30 to 50 percent of all living species by the middle of the 21st century. Now those predictions are coming true. The evidence shows that species loss today is accelerating. We find ourselves uncomfortably privileged to be witnessing a mass extinction event as it's taking place, in real time." | |
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from The New York Times, 01/13/08 In Life's Web, Aiding Trees can Kill Them "Their findings, reported in Friday's issue of the journal Science, add to the mounting evidence that relationships between plant and animal species can be far more complex than had been thought and that even seemingly benign interference can have devastating effects." | |
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from The Canadian, 01/13/08 Catastrophic Bee de-populations "It is particularly worrisome, she said, that the bees' death is accompanied by a set of symptoms, "which does not seem to match anything in the literature." In many cases, scientists have found evidence of almost all known bee viruses in the few surviving bees found in the hives after most have disappeared. Some had five or six infections at the same time and were infested with fungi -- a sign, experts say, that the insects' immune system may have collapsed." | |
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from University of Southern California, 01/15/08 Greenhouse Ocean May Downsize Fish, Risking One Of World "The last fish you ate probably came from the Bering Sea. But during this century, the sea's rich food web--stretching from Alaska to Russia--could fray as algae adapt to greenhouse conditions. "All the fish that ends up in McDonald's, fish sandwiches--that's all Bering Sea fish," said USC marine ecologist Dave Hutchins, whose former student at the University of Delaware, Clinton Hare, led research published Dec. 20 in Marine Ecology Progress Series. At present, the Bering Sea provides roughly half the fish caught in U.S. waters each year and nearly a third caught worldwide." | |
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from Washington Post (US), 02/17/08 Scientists Take Complaints About Interference to Hill "Two dozen scientists swarmed over Capitol Hill this week mad as vespinae (hornets) at what they say is Bush administration meddling in environmental science. Organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Endangered Species Coalition, the rumpled researchers won time in the offices of more than 20 lawmakers. They are protesting what Francesca Grifo, director of the Scientific Integrity Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists in Washington, calls "the systematic dismantling of the Endangered Species Act through the manipulation and suppression of science." | |
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from Christian Science Monitor, 01/16/08 On emptying seas, a vanishing way of life "Cabras, Italy - Seven hours after setting out into the inky 3 a.m. blackness, the Crazy Horse's two-man crew pulls back into port with the fruits of their morning's labor: just a few small buckets of fish, worth maybe $60. "That's the average now," sighs Gianni Pisanu, whose boat is docked nearby, as he helps his neighbors tie up. "The sea is impoverished now." For more than 50 years, the nearly two dozen countries bordering the Mediterranean have struggled to jointly manage the shared bounty of the sea, whose uniqueness makes managing this crisis both unusually difficult and extremely important." | |
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from Marianas Variety (Micronesia), 01/22/08 2008 is International Year of the Coral Reef "DIFFERENT environmental groups and government agencies gathered on Friday at the SandCastle of the Hyatt Regency Hotel Saipan to declare 2008 as the International Year of the Coral Reef.... The symposium also recognized the medicinal value of reef organisms, and the different threats to coral reefs such as improper watershed development, sedimentation, marine debris, over-fishing, global warming, among other problems." | |
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from National Geographic, 02/09/08 Warming Creating Extinction Risks for Hibernators "When researchers at the Rocky Mountain Biological Lab in Crested Butte, Colorado, started documenting marmot hibernation patterns in the 1970s, the animals rarely awoke before the third week of May...These abbreviated hibernations are part of a growing body of evidence suggesting that hibernating animals are waking up earlier—or not going to sleep at all—due to rising temperatures from global warming. From chipmunks and squirrels in the Rocky Mountains to brown bears in Spain, these altered slumber patterns are putting animals at risk both of starvation and increased predation, researchers say—which could bring many species to the brink of extinction." | |
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from United Press International, 02/14/08 Yellowstone mystery: Where are the rabbits "The U.S. Wildlife Conservation Society is trying to figure out why jack rabbits have vanished from Yellowstone National Park. The report, published in the journal Oryx, said there have been no confirmed jack rabbit sightings in Yellowstone since 1991 and only three in Grand Teton National Park since 1978. Historical records indicate that white-tailed jack rabbits were once abundant in Greater Yellowstone, a 23,166-square-mile ecosystem that contains the Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks, the group said Thursday in a release." | |
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from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, 02/18/08 Sharks In Peril: Ocean's Fiercest Predators Now Vulnerable To Extinction "Sharks are disappearing from the world's oceans. The numbers of many large shark species have declined by more than half due to increased demand for shark fins and meat, recreational shark fisheries, as well as tuna and swordfish fisheries, where millions of sharks are taken as bycatch each year." | |
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from AP, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 02/20/08 Bats in NY, VT dying from mysterious malady In New York, Hicks cautioned in a report that he and his colleagues were "one survey short of saying that every substantial collection of wintering bats in the state is infected." "If you are not worried, you should be," his report said. "The two sites infected last year that have been surveyed so far this winter have experienced a 90 percent and 97 percent drop in populations since this began, with most of the survivors currently in poor health." Worse, said Hicks, nobody knows the cause. "We don't know what the problem is. All we can do is just sit back and watch them die." | |
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from The Boston Globe, 02/21/08 Bat sickness reaches mines in Western Massachusetts "A mysterious and deadly sickness that has killed off thousands of bats in New York has now been discovered in two Western Massachusetts mines. Researchers say they expect to find more affected wintering bat populations as they lead expeditions into dark caves and mines in the Northeast over coming weeks. They predict that hundreds of thousands of the furry creatures will be wiped out before the end of winter. The illness ... does not appear to pose any risk to people... | |
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from Republican-American (CT), 02/23/08 Disease killing brown bats across the region... CT? A mysterious disease has killed hibernating bats in New York and Vermont, is spreading into Massachusetts, and may already be in Connecticut.... Biologists have now identified sick bats in Chester, Mass., 40 miles north of Connecticut's Barkhamsted Reservoir, and will be looking for them here in March. | |
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from 60 Minutes, 02/24/08 Honey Bees and Colony Collapse "Normally, if there weren't soldier bees to protect a hive's honey, all the honey would be poached by bees from other hives in short order. But, this beekeeper said, "The hives are like a ghost town. The honey's there. The other bees won't touch it." He showed the honey, just sitting there in the dead hive." | |
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from Concord Monitor (NH), 02/25/08 River herring decline has widespread effect "The Taylor River system, which lies largely in Hampton Falls and Hampton, had 400,000 river herring return from the sea annually in the 1980s. That number is now down to less than 1,000, the state Department of Fish and Wildlife estimates.... You wouldn't eat one on a bet, so what's it matter? Oh, but it does. The little fish are food, not just for humans, but for striped bass, cod, haddock, mackerel, salmon, porpoises, seals, dolphins and whales as well as terns, puffins and other seabirds. When their food supply shrinks, fish populations crash, prices rise, fishing restrictions are put in place and the fishing industry suffers." | |
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from Guardian (UK), 02/26/08 Sea birds choking on migrant fish "The snake pipefish, virtually unknown around the UK in 2002, has undergone a massive, baffling and dangerous expansion since then, scientists have discovered.... Since 2000 sea birds have not been able to find sufficient food either to sustain their chicks or give them the energy to breed, a problem that is blamed on the dwindling populations of small fish and sand eels that sea birds eat, a phenomenon scientists have been unable to explain.... Now parent guillemots, terns and puffins are scooping pipefish from the sea for their chicks as substitutes for their normal fish food. But the pipefish body is rigid and bony and extremely hard for chicks to eat. Biologists have found dozens left uneaten in single nests while chicks have choked to death on their bodies." | |
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from Prince George Citizen, 02/28/08 Canadian frogs endangered "Quebec aquariums and zoos are leaping to the defence of an animal that is increasingly threatened with extinction in La Belle Province and around the world -- frogs. The Quebec croaker and its amphibious friends are disappearing at a massive rate, with scientists estimating that up to one-half of species worldwide are in danger of disappearing. Some 120 species of amphibians have gone extinct in recent years, scientists say." | |
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from Science Daily (US), 03/02/08 Future Battlegrounds for Habitat Conservation Very Different to Those in Past "The researchers found that many of the regions that face the greatest habitat change in relation to the amount of land currently protected -- such as Indonesia and Madagascar -- are in globally threatened and endemic species-rich, developing tropical nations that have the fewest resources for conservation. Conversely, many of the temperate regions of the planet with an already expansive network of reserves are in countries -- such as Austria, Germany and Switzerland—with the greatest financial resources for conservation efforts, but comparatively less biodiversity under threat." | |
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from The Tribune, Chandigarh, India, 03/03/08 Toxins, sand mining threatens gharials "Between December 2007 and February 2008, as many as 105 gharials have been reported dead. However, the reason for the decline in their numbers is attributed to possibility of nephro-toxin entering the food chain and loss of habitat due to illegal sand mining." | |
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from BBC (UK), 03/04/08 Loch Ken in crisis over crayfish "A warning has been issued of a "looming" crisis on a Scottish loch due to the advance of a major predator. American signal crayfish, which can eat young fish and destroy their habitat, have been found in increasing numbers at Loch Ken in Dumfries and Galloway. Bob Williams of the Glenkens Business Association said the problem was having a "major impact" on trade in the area." | |
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from PhysOrg.com, 03/04/08 Eastern Hemlock on the ropes from invasive species "Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is an aesthetically and ecologically important species of tree found from eastern Canada to the Great Lakes states and south along the entire Appalachian mountain range. Since the hemlock tends to grow alongside streams, it plays an important role in regulating water temperature, and its loss could affect the many species of fish and insect life that inhabit mountain streams. The tree is threatened by the prolific spread of an exotic insect known as the hemlock wooly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), which kills the trees in as few as four years. In the past decade, the hemlock wooly adelgid has infested more than 50 percent of the eastern portion of the hemlock's range, and the number is expected to grow because the adelgid, an introduced species from Asia, has no natural predators in North America." | |
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from Star-Ledger (NJ), 03/05/08 Bats continue to de-hibernate and starve to death "Last year, when we first found this, we lost up to 18,000 bats. This year we're talking about [losing] 400,000. We've found problems in almost every cave in [NY] state, with one exception in Syracuse," said Hicks, the mammal specialist for the New York Endangered Species Unit. | |
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from Windsor Star (Canada), 03/07/08 Bird decline shocks experts Birds that eat flying insects are in a shocking and mysterious decline, says the co-editor of the new Atlas of Breeding Birds in Ontario. "It is an alarm bell," Gregor Beck, a wildlife biologist and the book's co-editor, said this week.... "It's really scary because we're not certain what's going on or why," Beck said. "There's not going to be a simple fix to this one." | |
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from Globe and Mail (Canada), 03/08/08 Tadpoles, sun, and ozone "A number of studies have suggested that higher levels of ultraviolet radiation -- due to ozone depletion -- can damage frog DNA.... [A] team at the University of Ottawa's Centre for Advanced Research in Environmental Genomics has found that even a slight increase in ultraviolet B radiation -- similar to what would hit frog eggs on a spring day in Ottawa -- can be disastrous. Many of the tadpoles exposed to low levels had physical abnormalities that would be deadly in the wild, such as kinked tails that forced them to swim in circles, or bloated abdomens. It appeared as if they could eat, but not defecate, biologist Vance Trudeau says. Unlike those in the control group, very few of the tadpoles exposed to UVB developed into frogs." | |
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from San Francisco Chronicle, 03/08/08 Delay in polar bear policy stirs probe "The Interior Department's inspector general has begun a preliminary investigation into why the department has delayed for nearly two months a decision on listing the polar bear as threatened because of the loss of Arctic sea ice. A recommendation to Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne was to have been made in early January by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on whether to declare the bear threatened. But when the deadline came, the agency said it needed another month, a timetable that also was not met." | |
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from NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, 03/08/08 Mysterious Eel Fishery Decline Blamed On Changing Ocean Conditions "American eels are fast disappearing from restaurant menus as stocks have declined sharply across the North Atlantic. While the reasons for the eel decline remain as mysterious as its long migrations, a recent study by a NOAA scientist and colleagues in Japan and the United Kingdom says shifts in ocean-atmosphere conditions may be a primary factor in declining reproduction and survival rates." | |
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from Wildlife Conservation Society, 03/08/08 Mercury Threatens Next Generation Of Loons "A long-term study by the Wildlife Conservation Society, the BioDiversity Research Institute, and other organizations has found and confirmed that environmental mercury--much of which comes from human-generated emissions--is impacting both the health and reproductive success of common loons in the Northeast." | |
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from iBerkshires (MA), 03/11/08 Bat die-off now found in Western Mass. After receiving reports last month from Vermont and New York about large numbers of bats dying in caves, biologists from the state Division of Fisheries and Wildlife and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service investigated caves and mines in the region where colonies of bats are known to spend the winter. They found bats flying outside of one of the state's largest mines in Chester when they should have been hibernating, and found dead bats near the entrance that were collected for further study. | |
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from Sacramento Bee, 03/14/08 Officials shut salmon fishing in seven coastal areas of California, Oregon "Wildlife officials moved Wednesday for early closure of seven coastal salmon fishing zones in California and Oregon, a sign of dire conditions facing the Central Valley chinook. The action came in a conference between fisheries managers gathered in Sacramento for a series of meetings by the Pacific Fisheries Management Council. Officials representing California, Oregon and the federal government opted to close the seven zones to protect salmon that remain alive in the ocean. | |
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from The Adirondack Daily Enterprise, 03/19/08 Bat die-off is serious Of the nearly 20 caves and mines that state Department of Environmental Conservation biologist Al Hicks is aware of the DEC surveying this winter, all but three had bats with white-nose syndrome in them, he said. That breaks down to about 400,000 bats affected. "It's almost everything we have," Hicks said. "It's about as bad as we can get." The mortality rate of bats with white-nose syndrome is 90 to 97 percent, Hicks said.... "a progression that is much faster than expected..." Darling estimated that, if half a million bats died, "that would add up to two billion insects per night that would not get eaten." | |
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from Science Daily (US), 03/24/08 Dissolved Organic Matter May Influence Coral Health The composition of dissolved organic matter surrounding Florida Keys coral reefs has likely changed in recent decades due to growing coastal populations. Bacterial communities endemic to healthy corals could change depending on the amount and type of natural and man-made dissolved organic matter in seawater, report researchers... "When coastal ecosystems are physically altered, the natural flow of dissolved organic material to nearby coral ecosystems is disrupted with potentially harmful consequences for the corals," said Shank, assistant professor of marine science. | |
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from US Fish and Wildlife Service, 03/22/08 White-Nose Syndrome in Bats (video) U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service endangered species biologist Susi von Oettingen talks about white-nose syndrome in bats and investigates a hibernaculum in an abandoned mine and the area around it. | |
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from FishUpdate.com, 03/22/08 North Sea protected area network would devastate industry, claims trade body According to the WWF UK report, published today, a network of marine reserves, that cover at least 30 per cent of the North Sea, is needed to help rebuild populations of many fish species, and protect the habitats upon which these, and other species depend. In the report, 'A Return to Abundance: A Case for Marine Reserves in the North Sea', WWF-UK suggests a network of five experimental marine reserves that it says will improve the sustainability of fisheries, protect biodiversity, and help establish a healthy ecosystem.... Describing the proposals as "flawed", Bertie Armstrong, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation said "The sweeping assumption is made that very large fixed marine protected areas would prove beneficial in the North Sea based on evidence gained from elsewhere. Such an assumption cannot safely be made, given the unique nature of the mixed fisheries in the North Sea." | |
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from Guardian (UK), 03/24/08 Krill fishing threatens Antarctic species The Antarctic, one of the planet's last unspoilt ecosystems, is under threat from mankind's insatiable appetite for harvesting the seas. The population of krill, a tiny crustacean, is in danger from the growing demand for health supplements and food for fish farms. Global warming has already been blamed for a dramatic fall in numbers because the ice that is home to the algae and plankton they feed on is melting. Now 'suction' harvesting which gathers up vast quantities has been introduced to meet the increased demand. It threatens not just krill, but the entire ecosystem that depends on them, say environmental campaigners. Krill are also believed to be important in removing the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by eating carbon-rich food near the surface and excreting it when they sink to lower, colder water to escape predators. | |
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from Guardian (UK), 03/24/08 US authority failing to list endangered species Conservation groups claim that Bush appointees have been deliberately making it harder to designate animals and plants as endangered, and have launched a series of lawsuits. Administration officials admit that there are about 280 species waiting to be added to the list.... The Washington Post yesterday published internal documents from the interior department showing that officials have frequently overruled recommendations from scientists. The lack of recent designations could be motivated by various interests such as a desire not to see oil exploration or housing development shackled by a need to protect habitats that are home to threatened species. | |
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from BBC (UK), 03/26/08 Plastic and the Midway albatross The Midway Islands are home to some of the world's most valuable and endangered species and they all are at risk from choking, starving or drowning in the plastic drifting in the ocean. Nearly two million Laysan albatrosses live here and researchers have come to the staggering conclusion that every single one contains some quantity of plastic. About one-third of all albatross chicks die on Midway, many as the result of being mistakenly fed plastic by their parents. | |
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from The Vancouver Sun, 03/26/08 Pine beetle infestation impacting salmon runs "VANCOUVER - If the heat of climate change weren't enough of a danger to Pacific salmon, scientists are cataloging how the effects of the global-warming-aided mountain pine beetle infestation are adding to salmon's woes. The grain-of-rice-sized beetles have chewed through interior pine forests covering an area four-times the size of Vancouver Island, a report released Tuesday by the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council notes. Some 60 per cent of the Fraser River watershed is affected, with loss of forest cover over salmon streams that has led to numerous impacts that "significantly alter the watershed's ecology, threatening already stressed salmon runs." | |
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from Science Daily (US), 03/31/08 Migratory Wetland Habitat for Shorebirds Declining Fast "A decline by more than 70 percent of several North American shorebird species since the early 1970s has brought state, federal and international concern about conservation efforts for these birds and their wetland habitat.... Shorebirds stop over in Oklahoma to utilize wetlands and other waterways to rest and feed during both their spring and fall migrations. Davis said little is known about how landscape patterns and land use influence shorebirds migrating through the state. | |
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from The Toronto Globe and Mail, 03/31/08 The end of the road "To most Canadians, migration is a spectacle that marks the seasons. We know spring is here, despite the snowbanks in much of the country, because northbound geese have begun to appear from the south, just as we knew winter was coming when we saw them flying the other way. But many long-distance travellers — from the whooping crane and the red knot to sea turtles and the rarest of the world's large whales, the North Atlantic right — are in serious trouble. Over millions of years, they have been hardwired to undertake long journeys to survive. But these feats of strength and endurance are increasingly perilous in a world ever more congested and plagued by a changing climate." | |
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