It ain't just the honeybees -- whose epidemic of
colony collapse
disorder is wiping out beekeepers, nor is it the near-extinction of
many wild pollinator populations. It's not just the disrupted
bat
hibernation in the Northeast, or the disruption in
songbirds
and farmland birds,
butterflies,
amphibians,
the fish
or the coral reefs of the ocean,
or just the collapse of freshwater mussels.
It's all of the above, and more. It's increasingly clear that
biodiversity is rapidly declining, worldwide. Species are going extinct
before they can be catalogued, and those whose numbers were
significant a decade ago have become rare.
If it was just the cute critters -- the koalas, the polar bears, the
tigers, the mountain gorillas -- it would still be sad. But it's the
species upon which other populations of species depend (which is nearly
every species), the workhorse species, the fundamental species, that
are also in decline. That's the scariest part, for the species homo
sapiens.
Without wild and domestic bees, for example, a large proportion of
food crops (apples, soybeans, almonds, peaches, cherries,
strawberries, and more) would not bear fruit. Without a robust bird
population, many beetle and locust populations might explode. Without
amphibians like frogs, mosquito and other insect populations may
swarm, imbalancing yet other ecosystem interrelationships.
And, without critters we hardly pay attention to -- say, a particular
kind of plankton -- then the tiny plankton-eaters, which feed the
small fish, which feed the bigger fish, which feed the sharks, all
crash. The web of life becomes tattered.
There is evidence that even the fairly slight effects of climate
warming that we've been experiencing the last decade may be turning dependencies out
of whack:
It is very difficult to disaggregate the Climate Change Scenario
from the Species Collapse Scenario, as seen above, but unlike the
Confluentialists at
The
Center for PostApocalypse Studies, we at the Institute strive to
focus on one catastrophe at a time, to better understand and analyze
them.
To that end, we are hypothesizing a decade in which a
number of key species go into
catastrophic decline, for reasons we will only dimly understand. In
some areas it will be dramatic, in other areas less so.
- Northerly climates, and more biodiverse
ecosystems, may fare better than U.S. midwestern industrial
agricultural lands.
- Food, especially certain basics (like
soybeans, even corn) may become significantly more expensive.
- Standard shipping methods will continue
to operate, even though it gets somewhat more expensive (based on
current trends, not even considering Peak Oil)
- Biotechnology and biological sciences go
into practical research mode, trying to compensate and ameliorate
- Various "plagues of insects" -- because
insects generally evolved to multiply so very fast -- will cause
localized devastation: grasshoppers in one state, beetles in another
-- and strenuous but functionally ineffective quarantines will be
implemented at great cost.
- Fish populations -- a source of the
majority of the raw protein available in the world -- will continue to
decline. The increasing prices will encourage even more invasive
fishing techniques (beyond even the miles-long
drift nets and
deep-sea trawling
currently hoovering up indiscriminately), including even more rogue, unregulated
pirate trawlers. This effectively destroys the
ocean's ability to recover in most traditional fisheries. See the collapse of the Northern Cod as an example.
- Financial devastation within many
important sectors,
and the increasing costs and unavailability of many foods, will create
economic turmoil.
- Al-Qaeda and the "war on terrorism" in
general are recognized as functionally meaningless, compared to the
real crisis
- Certain areas will experience wild
fluctuations in property values, with consequent community
devastation. A permanent infestation of unchecked species -- because
their primary predators have died off or gone north -- will leave towns and
regions essentially untenable. This will cause great economic
turmoil, and possibly millions of economic refugees even within
developed nations.
- Greenhouses, gardens, and humanly-tended
heritage crops becomes more important, as well as profitable.
Microagriculture becomes vital to community health, and even survival.
- Canning and storing food when it's
plentiful will become routine in homes.
- Internet and other forms of
telecommunication and entertainment continue to grow in importance, as
an affordable respite, and a way to follow this month's species event
like we once followed the weather.