The Recovery Scenario is more than just wishful thinking. Rather, it's an irrational, optimistic belief in fundamental human sanity.

The trend lines, for those who are paying attention, are quite bleak. But the ApocoDocs remember that Lake Erie was declared dead from pollution back in the 70s, yet managed to recover. So we have hope that we haven't tipped past the tipping point in the natural world, and that humankind can wake up and repair the damage we've done. Or, if we have indeed passed some tipping point, we can move quickly enough to mitigate the impending harm.

Recovery will require sacrifice. This will be difficult for the generations spoiled by the last fifty years of cheap energy, bountiful resources, and seemingly limitless capacity for economic growth. Like a spoiled boy stomping his little foot, they will believe that they have the natural right to commute alone in SUVs, the right to convenience at the expense of nature, the right to dispose of anything they no longer want, the right to eat fresh fruit in January. Perhaps like that spoiled boy, we can grow up, and realize that there are limits.

Recovery will require a societal awakening. We need to become disgusted with ourselves, and embarrassed by what we've done. We must identify the polluters, and demand they stop -- recognizing that consumer prices will rise. We will need to find social systems and economic rewards to motivating right action, and disregard namecalling regarding "tree huggers" and "eco-nazis." We must recognize that occasional terrorist outbreaks are nothing compared to the terror of environmental collapse.

Recovery will require political action. Small farms should get more tax benefits than factory farms, penalties for waste must be devised, carbon taxes must continue to be developed. Mostly, it will require a common vision that extends beyond the next political cycle.

Recovery will require scientific action. We must listen to experts, even if it hurts. It will require encouraging engineers to develop small-scale and large-scale solutions. It will require the wealthy world to provide affordable options to the poor world, so they don't repeat our mistakes.

Above all, recovery will require recognition -- that we all face up to what we've done, what we're doing, and what will happen if we don't change. This may be the most difficult task ahead of us.

We are hypothesizing, over the next ten years, the following scenario:

Leaders are elected who are willing to risk their offices to save humanity.
Small-scale farming, even backyard gardening, is encouraged by tax benefits and small-business loans
Small-scale energy options -- backyard wind and solar power -- are similarly encouraged
The EPA is given power to meaningfully penalize toxic effluviant
Genetically modified crops are labeled as such
Over five years, federal gasoline taxes rise to $5/gallon, to be used for environmental reparations
Telecommuting replaces commuting for most white-collar jobs
Internet/cellphone systems are developed to allow share-a-ride, bring-the-groceries, and other means of making any drive serve multiple purposes
Intense efforts are initiated, regardless of the cost, to scrub CO₂ from coal-fired plants
An increase in vegetarian diets decreases the demand for beef
Rainforest logging is stopped worldwide, via support from the developed nations
Local, community-based systems for sharing large tools, tillers, canoes, and more, decreases idle consumption
Recycling increases, but more importantly, biodegradable materials are used at the consumer level: no more plastic sacks, no more plastic plates, no more plastic cups
A toxin tax is developed, to build the "true cost" of poisoning the world into the economy
Public health systems worldwide integrate to recognize and respond to viral and bacterial outbreaks
We acknowledge that we have to pay, for the next fifty years, for the environmental and economic debt accumulated during the wild party of the last fifty years.

If we can make these, and other changes, then we can help repair the world. The enemies of recovery are those who have a vested interest in maintaining the current, wasteful, toxic, unsustainable system. These enemies have trillions of dollars of investment in that system, and will struggle mightily -- as they did on climate warming for the last thirty years -- to confuse the issue, ridicule the opposition, lobby state and federal politicians, and avoid responsibility.

We must not let them.